# INNATURE: how the search and AI money model is built

Team Empathy, 19 October 2026. Every figure in the strategy report's money section comes from the steps below.
All figures are New Zealand, non-branded (people searching for the products, not for INNATURE by name), gross and in NZD.

## Read this first

Two inputs are estimates, because the tracking needed to measure them is not connected:

1. **Today's clicks are modelled** from INNATURE's current Google New Zealand positions on Ahrefs, because there is no Search Console access yet.
2. **The value of a click uses the last measured conversion rate and order value**: Google Analytics 4, Organic Search channel, 2021-09-01 to 2022-01-31, the last months the property recorded both visits and sales (on the old website).

The whole model gets re-run on real Search Console and Shopify numbers once they are connected.

## Step 1: the market

- Triangulated basket: 136,945 searches a month across 190 keywords (median of Google Keyword Planner, SEMrush and Ahrefs, New Zealand, October 2026).
- Core: 26,330 searches a month. Core = products INNATURE makes, with buying intent, where an INNATURE page can credibly rank. The two generic 'sofa bed' heads (16,500 a month) are held out, because the furniture chains own them today.
- With the long tail (x 1.35) and over a year (x 12): 426,546 searches a year.
- Winnable organic clicks (x 0.2, the share of searches that end in an organic click once ads, shopping carousels and AI answers take theirs): **85,309 clicks a year** (7,109 a month).

## Step 2: what INNATURE wins today

For each core search, take the share of its organic clicks that INNATURE's current position normally earns, using a published click-through curve:
position 1 = 27% of searches, 2 = 15%, 3 = 10%, 4 = 7%, 5 = 5%, 6 = 4%, 7 = 3%, 8 = 2.5%, 9 = 2%, 10 = 1.8%, 11-15 = 1%, 16-20 = 0.7%, beyond 20 = 0.
Divided by the sum of positions 1 to 10 (77.3%), that gives the share of a search's organic clicks held at each position (first place is about 35%).
Applied to each search's winnable clicks and summed across the core: **5,850 non-branded clicks a year**, which is **6.86%** of the pool.
Of 137 core searches, INNATURE ranks for 76 and is in the top three on 34.
Cross-check: Ahrefs estimates all of INNATURE's New Zealand Google traffic, branded included, above this; the last year Analytics tracked (Aug 2023 to Jul 2024) shows 45,170 Google organic visits, branded and non-branded together.

## Step 3: what a click is worth

- Organic visits 21,758, purchases 246, revenue $111,858.67 (2021-09-01 to 2022-01-31).
- Conversion rate = 246 / 21,758 = **1.1306%**.
- Order value = $111,858.67 / 246 = **$454.71**.
- Value of a click = conversion rate x order value = **$5.141**.
- Smell test: paid search earned $3.94 a visit in the same months, so organic's value sits within reach of paid's.

## Step 4: the scenarios

Each case grows INNATURE's share of the same pool. Revenue = share x pool x value of a click. New revenue = the case minus today (rounded figures).

| Case | Share | Clicks / yr | Orders / yr | Non-branded revenue / yr (gross) | New revenue / yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 6.86% | 5,850 | 66.1 | $30,073 | - |
| Conservative | 12.00% | 10,237 | 115.7 | $52,629 | +$22,556 |
| Mid | 18.00% | 15,356 | 173.6 | $78,944 | +$48,871 |
| High | 25.00% | 21,327 | 241.1 | $109,644 | +$79,571 |

Each extra 1% of the pool = 853 clicks, 9.6 orders and **$4,386** a year in gross revenue.
The ceiling, first place on every core search, is about 35%. The high case (25%) sits below it.

## Step 5: the curve

The chart is the mid case arriving: $30,073, $34,960, $47,178, $64,283, $78,944 at today, month 3, 6, 9 and 12 (10%, 35%, 70% and 100% of the mid case's new revenue live). The month-12 point equals the mid row of the table.

## What is not in the model

- Branded searches (people typing INNATURE), which sit on top unchanged.
- The big generic heads INNATURE stocks but does not rank for (bed frames, mattress toppers, bassinets, sofa beds), which are upside.
- AI assistant referrals, counted separately so nothing is double-counted.
- Lifetime value and repeat purchases, because there is no customer data yet.